Last Updated on July 22, 2024 by Ali Hamza
Cricket is hugely popular in India and many other countries, as is the pastime of betting. With so much cricket action taking place worldwide, all throughout the year, it stands to reason that there is a large number of opportunities for betting on cricket events, including local matches, one-day games, or test matches.
Along with gambling’s popularity is the rise of betting over the internet on online betting platforms such as Crickex. Whilst some gamblers may simply place a wager on their favourite teams; others are looking at ways of gaining a potential edge. As a result, some see value bets as a possible option.
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What is value betting?
In a nutshell, a value bet is when you think the odds-on offer does not actually reflect the true reality. One classic example used to illustrate the meaning of a value bet is a coin toss. When you flip a coin, there is a 50/50 chance it will land on either heads or tails.
If a bookmaker offered 50/50 odds on a coin toss, in the long run, they would not make money. So instead, let’s say they offer 1.95 on either heads or tails. That way, they have a built-in margin that will make them money over time.
What if a bookmaker offered odds of 2.10 for a coin toss landing on tails and 1.90 if the coin landed on heads? Tails are the obvious choice to bet on because the odds being offered are greater than those in the real world. This essentially is what value betting is – spotting odds offered by bookmakers that gamblers do not think to reflect reality.
Applying value betting to cricket
Tossing a coin is straightforward since the outcome is always one or the other – heads or tails. Picking who will win a cricket match is a lot harder since there are so many more variables.
One way of potentially identifying a value bet is by transforming a bookmaker’s odds into percentages. For example, let’s say in a test match between New Zealand and India, the odds of New Zealand winning are 3, and India is 1.4. Converting this to a percentage value, we get approximately 33.33% and 71.43%, respectively. Adding these values together equates to 104.76%, so 4.76% is the bookmaker’s profit margin.
Next comes the hard part – calculating the odds of each team winning in real life. There is no mathematical formula for this as such, but knowledge of things like the current form can be used to make an estimate.
Let’s say we think New Zealand has a 45% chance of winning the match, compared to the 33.33% at the bookmakers. If gamblers can successfully and consistently find these gaps, it may be possible to potentially find an edge in the long term.
Do value bets always win?
In short, it is practically impossible to win every bet, even when taking a value bet angle. As mentioned, cricket is a complicated event with a wide variety of variables to consider.
This makes it difficult to accurately gauge the realistic odds of a team winning. However, value betting is popular and may be worth investigating for those looking for a different approach to their cricket betting, alongside those critically important sensible bankroll management practices.
Read More: Understanding Football Betting Options For Beginners
